First CBAM Certificate Price Published: Cost Clarity, Data Uncertainty
CBAM Weekly – Issue 89
€75.36 per tonne for the first quarter
The European Commission published the first CBAM certificate price on April 7, setting it at €75.36 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. For importers, this is good news at first glance: one of the key variables for calculating their obligations is now fixed. The other variables, however, remain subject to considerable uncertainty.
Why the price came in lower than expected
The published price is the weighted average of all EU ETS closing prices in the first quarter. In January, ETS prices were still above €92 before falling sharply over the course of the quarter, after the Commission announced plans to revise the ETS system as part of the upcoming review. Those who had budgeted for higher CBAM costs in January now benefit from the averaging. The price for the second quarter will be published on July 6, Q3 on October 5, and Q4 on January 4, 2027. From 2027 onwards, the calculation will shift to a weekly basis.
The formula is known, but the variables are not
The calculation of CBAM costs per tonne follows a clear formula: embedded emissions are reduced by the free allocation of allowances, multiplied by the CBAM factor, and valued at the certificate price. Carbon prices already paid in the country of origin can also be deducted. While the certificate price is now known, the emissions data itself remains the critical open variable.
Those who can draw on verified emissions data from their suppliers typically pay significantly less than when using default values. According to industry observers, actual emissions data could reduce CBAM costs to a fraction of the standard calculation. In practice, however, many importers currently still rely on default values, as the accreditation of verifiers is only just getting underway and many non-EU suppliers have yet to establish emissions monitoring systems that meet EU standards. The default values are deliberately set conservatively and include a surcharge that amounts to 10% for most goods in 2026, rising to 30% by 2028. Those who remain dependent on default values will systematically pay more.
Pre-verification
For this reason, companies are currently trying to prepare their suppliers for emissions monitoring as best they can. Many are turning to so-called pre-verification, which is intended to assess suppliers against CBAM standards today, giving companies confidence that the supplier will pass the formal verification later and that the reported CO₂ figure will also be verified at the correct level. In practice, however, significant challenges have emerged. Most pre-verified datasets do not hold up to closer scrutiny, as key elements such as an emissions monitoring plan are missing.
Planning certainty?
Beyond emissions data, the deduction of carbon prices already paid in third countries also remains unclear. We are still awaiting the implementing regulation on this point. Nevertheless, companies can now use the certificate price to gain planning certainty for Q1 2026 imports, at least in a worst-case scenario: they can calculate using default values and the published carbon price. Any deductible carbon price already paid or verified emissions data will only reduce the costs calculated on this basis.
What companies can do now
The purchase of CBAM certificates begins on February 1, 2027, with the first submission deadline on September 30, 2027, covering all imports for the year 2026. No payment is due until then, but obligations are already accumulating. Companies should now run two scenarios: one based on current default values and one using realistic assumptions for actual emissions. The difference shows the value of investing in supplier data. Those who engage with their suppliers early and systematically capture emissions data will reduce their cost burden and be prepared for the verification obligations from 2027 onwards.
Outlook
With the publication of the first certificate price, CBAM becomes concretely calculable for many companies for the first time. What remains open is how ETS prices will develop in the coming quarters and how quickly robust verification structures will be established in the key supplier countries.
Support
If you would like to understand how the published certificate price affects your CBAM obligations, or how to prepare your supplier data for verification, please feel free to reach out at helge@kolum.earth.