CBAM certificate price rises to EUR 82.32: The price becomes predictable, the data remains the risk

The Commission publishes the price for the third quarter

On 5 October 2026, the European Commission published the price of CBAM certificates for the third quarter. It stands at EUR 82.32 per certificate, EUR 7.04 above the second-quarter figure. Importers now know three of the four prices they will use to calculate the cost of their 2026 imports. How reliable that calculation is, however, depends less on the price than on their suppliers' emissions data.

Three quarterly prices and a first jump

A special rule applies to 2026. Under Article 21(1a) of the CBAM Regulation, the certificate price is calculated as the average of EU ETS auction prices in the quarter in which the goods were imported. After EUR 75.36 in the first quarter and EUR 75.28 in the second, the price has now risen by just over 9 percent. The driver was higher allowance prices over the summer, which at times exceeded EUR 88 in mid-September.

For cost planning, this means each import is valued at the price of its import quarter. Companies that have so far calculated their 2026 provisions with a flat annual figure should break them down by quarter according to import volumes. Payment only falls due in 2027.

Indications for the fourth quarter, but no forecast

The Commission will publish the fourth-quarter price on 4 January 2027. It is derived from the auctions held through the end of December and cannot be reliably predicted today. In early October, allowances traded at around EUR 84, slightly above the third-quarter average. Over the coming weeks, the market will mainly be moved by the negotiations on the reform of the emissions trading system and by reports of an agreement to link the UK and EU systems, which has not yet been officially confirmed. Importers are therefore better off planning the fourth quarter with a range rather than a single figure, for example between the second-quarter level and the September high.

The platform for buying certificates is taking shape

Certificates will be bought on a common central platform that the Commission procured jointly with the Member States. The Commission's Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD) awarded the contract to European Dynamics and Viva.com, as both companies announced in July.

European Dynamics is developing the platform and integrating it with the EU's customs and tax systems, while Viva.com provides the accounts and SEPA payment processing. Operations are due to start on 1 February 2027.

The rules for purchase and repurchase will be set out in a delegated act, the draft of which was open for consultation until 6 August. Among other things, it provides for a fee of EUR 0.05 per certificate. The act has not yet been adopted. From 2027, the logic also changes. The Commission will then publish weekly prices, and authorised CBAM declarants must hold certificates at the end of each quarter covering at least 50 percent of the embedded emissions of their imports so far that year. An annual settlement thus becomes an ongoing liquidity issue.

Foreign Trade Day in Cologne: The cost risk lies in the data

At the Thementag Außenwirtschaft (Foreign Trade Day) in Cologne this week, customs managers from across Germany came together. The CBAM session focused on how importing companies can hedge their cost risk. The certificate price played a smaller role than emissions data. Whether a tonne of aluminium enters the declaration with default values including the mark-up or with verified installation data often affects costs more than a price difference of a few euros. Much of the discussion centred on so-called pre-verifications, in which suppliers have their data checked before the end of the reporting period. For actual emissions, CBAM law relies on the verification report of an accredited verifier covering the reporting period. A pre-verification provides orientation. Without a reliance letter, in which the verifier explicitly allows the importer to rely on its findings, it offers no certainty.

ALUMINIUM in Düsseldorf: The other side of the data request

At the ALUMINIUM trade fair in Düsseldorf from 6 to 8 October, the opposite perspective came into view. European and non-European producers and traders meet there, and many of them report growing pressure from their European customers' data requests. There is often a sense that the buyers themselves do not know exactly which data they need and at what frequency, which causes frustration.

One example was a demand to deliver emissions data at the very beginning of January. For goods imported in 2026, the reporting period is the year 2026, and verification can only be completed once that year is over. In this case, the product was also a processed good. The producer then first needs the verified data of its own suppliers, because actual values for precursors from third countries may only be taken from the verification report of an accredited verifier. If no such report exists, default values apply to the precursor. A supplier promising verified data for early January is therefore promising something it cannot deliver.

Who pays for verification

Then there are the costs. Producers report very high prices from some verifiers and difficult communication with them. They show understanding for their customers' data requests, as they are aware of the impact of CBAM costs on importers. European buyers, however, are usually unwilling to share verification costs because they are already paying for the certificates, so these costs squeeze the producer's margins in the European business. Verification only pays off if enough goods go to the EU to spread the costs without losing competitiveness.

A problem similar to the one European importers face is thus also emerging outside Europe. Importers should therefore align their data requests with realistic timelines, meaning verified data in the course of 2027, ahead of the declaration deadline on 30 September. With suppliers that ship small volumes to the EU, an open conversation about cost sharing is worthwhile. It is also possible to use actual values for the producer's own processes and default values for individual precursors.

Outlook

On 20 October, trilogue negotiations on extending CBAM to downstream products begin in Strasbourg. The Commission will publish the fourth-quarter price on 4 January 2027, and certificate sales via the central platform start on 1 February 2027. By then, importers should agree with their suppliers on when verified data for 2026 will be available and for which precursors default values will be used.

Support

If you would like to understand how certificate prices and the status of your supplier data affect your CBAM costs for 2026, for example which deadlines you can realistically set for your suppliers or where default values are the better choice, please get in touch at helge@kolum.earth.